The NFP Report Webinar

The NFP report is a major driver in the U.S economy. Released monthly, the data generates interesting trading opportunities, a treat for investors.

Beginners

18:00 GMT-19:00 GMT
03.08.2017

Mike Roberts

32:49

Webinar Transcript

Alright, we are going to start. I really apologise for this delay that we had today, long delay actually. There was some kind of technicality here. I am going to later take a look what exactly happened. To begin with, I just wanted to say, before the reports tomorrow, I just want to say about the financial markets in general and sorry again about the technicality here, but now it’s resolved. I just want to say that for entering the NFP tomorrow which of course, is a very important report. The significance of this report is not only, by the way, for the U.S. market. We are talking about the significance of this report, it’s also in general for traders to take advantage of course. We are looking at very very strong trading opportunities as always on this monthly report; but before going to that, I just want to say that we are looking at a U.S. market which is trading on all time highs guys. We are in the midst of earnings season, we saw a lots of different reports come out of earnings season and the reports were really really good. Major companies in the United States published very strong reports and it’s looking very very good there. We saw the Dow Jones break 22,00 points and we saw companies like Apple publish fantastic reports. So, the U.S. market in general is looking very good and that is the environment in which we are entering at the jobs report. So, market volatility, market fear- no place to be found. Everybody is pretty optimistic about the situation and that’s very important when we enter this jobs report. I am going to speak about the U.S. dollar of course. That is going to be our main asset to trade and we are looking at very strong, very aggressive actually, movements by the EURUSD and the U.S. dollar in general. So, let’s go over the presentation and then we can take a look at other things that we should watch for before the reports tomorrow.

Let’s go straight to the presentation. We are going to go a bit about what is the NFP in general. I am going to show you where to find the information about tomorrow’s very important event. We are going to take a look at the charts and we are going to take a look at the platform and what we can see there.

So on the agenda today:

  1. Defining NFP
  2. Importance of NFP
  3. Trading the NFP
  4. Forecasts
  5. Closing Line

For those of you whose this is the first time trading the NFP, tomorrow 12:30 PM GMT, the most important event in the U.S. market- the jobs report. If you speak to financial analysts, business people, folks from the Federal reserve, the President of the United States, you name it, everybody is looking at the jobs report. That’s what the U.S. economy is concerned about. Of course, today, it’s not only about the jobs number itself, but also about the quality of work and we are going to take a look, not only to look at the amount of jobs but also on the quality of job- it’s also very very important.

So,

  1. Nonfarm Payrolls are published at regular intervals on the first Friday of each month.
  2. Gives an indication on the total number of paid workers in all sectors excluding farming.
  3. As an effect, it can generate potential trading opportunities.

These opportunities could be:

  1. A rise in the U.S. dollar.
  2. A rise in U.S. indices.

When you are talking about jobs report again, you are actually also speaking about the quantity of work. How many new payrolls, it’s the Nonfarm Payrolls- how many new payrolls in the economy and what is the wages itself, are they changing? A lot of people are saying that the U.S economy is hiring more people; but the quality of work is not that high and that can affect the U.S dollar. Another thing which is very important about the , of course, we are talking about binarizing the event, making the event a binary event. We are trading binary options, we need sharp directions there folks. We need to understand up or down call or put and therefore, when you look at the jobs report tomorrow, you need to look at it in the eyes of expansion. If the indication is very good, that is actually an expansion in the U.S. economy. A bad report can indicate a contraction and that is not not so good. OK so let’s move on;

  1. The NFP is a very good indication of Expansion in the U.S. economy. It hints towards a healthy & growing economy should the NFP readings be bullish, i:e, positive.
  2. On the other hand, the NFP also gives clues on a possible Contraction, which points towards weakness in the economy should the NFP readings be bearish, i:e; negative.

Now I want to go straight to the financial calendar. Tomorrow at let’s say 12:25 GMT, just five minutes before the actual report, I want you guys to be ready with two things. I want you to be ready with the BinaryOnline platform, okay you got to log in and see that everything is working properly and second, be ready with the financial calendar so yo ucan get the information live. That’s what I suggest you do. I use forexfactory.com, you can use whatever you want, if it’s investing.com; any financial calendar that you prefer.

So, Friday 4th- Nonfarm employment change- this is the event we are talking about. How many new people joined the labor force in America. This is such an important number and indication for the U.S. economy and every time we get this number there is a big movement in the market. […] If you are following Donald trump’s tweets, you are going to see that a big portion of that is towards jobs and that is something that is very important for Trump and it’s very important for politicians, very important for the federal reserve and it’s going to of course, affect the USD. Anything can happen tomorrow at the NOnfarm Payroll and I have been trading the Nonfarm Payroll for years of course and anything can happen I am going to be ready for any situation. If we look at today’s situation, I think that today’s situation is pretty fragile, folks don’t really know what is the trend right now. Of course, the U.S. economy is adding so much work. So it seems that the jobs report is good but maybe we are kind of in the end of this expansion and maybe we are going to see some kind of contraction, I don’t know. But anything can happen, you guys are got to be ready both on call options on the USD and with Put options on the USD. Of course, there are folks that speculate. They try to kind of position themselves before the event.[…]

The significance of quantity vs quality is just, it’s a fifty fifty… fifty percent for quantity and fifty percent for quality. There was a shift, for many years, quantity was much more important than quality because of lot of we people were not working and unemployment rate was very high, folks in the U.S. were looking for a job and the USD only reacted to the amount of work. Then, in the past 12 month, in last year 2016, mostly, you a shift towards wage growth, towards quality of work. Investors said that they are not looking right now for the amount of work, but they are more concerned about the quality of work. But I think at the right now, when wage growth is pretty much stable there, I think that people want more and more jobs created and at the same time, quality of jobs. I think right now, the significance is pretty much even between quality and quantity. […] A weak dollar tomorrow and a weak jobs report tomorrow, should push the EURUSD higher. Why does this matter. The reason it matters is because if there is a trend, that means that if you get under one hand, let’s say the jobs report tomorrow is weak, that would mean a weak dollar tomorrow and possible call options on the EURUSD. That means that there is a car driving, the EURUSD driving up and we are just giving it more and more fuel on its upside momentum. That’s the idea, which is a very convenient trait. We are just going with the trend. On the other hand, if the jobs report is good, that means that that car is going to have to u-turn and drive back- the EURUSD is going to go down. That is going to be a bit more difficult for the EURUSD to kind turn around and go down then just continue to go up. There are more people today in the financial markets that want to buy EURUSD than people that want to sell EURUSD and in an environment that there are more people that want to buy EURUSD, then I prefer buying call options on the EURUSD; but I’m not going to do that if the jobs report is not going to be good. […] Same thing goes for gold. […]

This week’s report could be a crucial event for the US dollar.

The US dollar is under huge pressure because of weak politics from the White House.

A good NFP on Friday could provide some support to the dollar. In any case the reaction should be strong and as a consequence generate strong opportunities.

Folks, tomorrow we are trading short term and possibly long term. I would prefer taking advantage of the long term opportunities if the NFP is bad tomorrow. We traders, we are very selfish people at the end of the day. We are not concerned about the economy, we are concerned about a sharp trading opportunity. I hope you guys agree with me. And at the end of the day, that’s mostly what we are looking for which is sharp trading opportunities. In the end of the day, I’m going to prefer a bad report tomorrow, taking advantage of the trend of this weak dollar and make the most out of it and I will also trade on a good report tomorrow. […]

If the results tomorrow come in strong for the USD, then that is going to be very attractive for me, you know short term trading, 15 minutes, 20 minutes trading, maybe even end of day, but not long term because I think even if the report is coming good, there are so much things that are pushing that dollar down. It’s going to be very difficult for the USD to sustain an opportunity even if the report tomorrow is good. Okay, that’s pretty much the set up for tomorrow. We got EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, the stock market in the U.S. is in a very strong uptrend.

Thank you for joining me for this session. Folks I’m going to be here next week same time, same day, with different trading opportunities, different event. I am getting great feedbacks, great folks are making good trading experiences here. I wish you the best of luck in tomorrow’s session and see you guys next week, byebye for now.

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